Trenders Game

The Euro was volatile during the early New York session today as Draghi spoke at the European Central Bank’s monthly press conference. The Euro looked firm throughout most of the European session as it rallied off the lows near 1.3900 and was aided by the lack of a rate cut at 7:45am EST. By the […]

Friday was a frustrating day for US Dollar bulls and bond market bears. The non farm payrolls data showed that 288k jobs were created, while the unemployment rate fell from 6.7% to 6.3% . On the flip side, wage growth fell from 2.0% to 1.9% year over year. Additionally much attention was given to the […]

The Euro is starting to look very vulnerable in the wake of recent data on inflation and money growth. Additionally short term interbank rates are on the rise, meanwhile periphery bond spreads have plunged to multi year lows. In the past four months, Ireland, Portugal and Greece have all returned to capital markets and have […]

Major currency pairs are stuck in tight ranges. USDJPY has been between 101 and 103.50 for over three months now. EURUSD has been contained by 1.37 and 1.39 since mid February. These types of market conditions can slowly chip away a trend traders account as momentum is very low and its hard to get continuation […]

AUD, NZD and EM(ZAR,TRY,MXN) currencies have had a strong 8 weeks. Ironically this strength seems to have been helped by slowing data from China. The worse the numbers have come out the more the market seems to expect a bold stimulus program, but these hopes have been all but dashed in the past week. The […]

During my experience on an interbank trading desk, the locations of “ACB”  (Asian Central Bank) orders were coveted secrets. The main ACB is of course the Peoples Bank of China. The PBoC manages its FX reserves through various shadowy custodians and sovereign wealth vehicles.  The method these central banks use is staking out a particular […]

Last week I wrote that a clear change in sentiment on the Dollar would be needed for USD bulls to take control. The recent string of data may be just what was needed to lend the greenback some support. U.S. economic data reported over the past few days has been unambiguously positive.  Producer prices, Consumer […]

  The Australian Dollar/ New Zealand Dollar exchange rate has been in a down trend over the past year. During the spring of 2013, the Reserve Bank of Australia(RBA) began to shift towards a dovish policy and cut rates several times over the course of the year. These reductions in the Australian policy rate weakened […]

Mario Draghi spoke today in Washington at an IMF press conference. The majority of his comments revolved around the Eurozone Asset Backed Securities(ABS) Market. Since the Davos Conference in Late January Mario Draghi has eluded to a possible quantitative easing program focused on purchasing asset backed securities from Eurozone banks. As the case for QE […]

The USD is now in its fifth day of declines. Last week’s non-farm payrolls and recent Bank of Japan meeting sparked a wave of Dollar selling. Looking into the recent CFTC positioning report, the vast majority of USD longs were held against the Yen. Earlier this week these positions were put under massive pressure as […]